Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.410841 0.478918 0.552581 0.637945 0.733865 0.838035 0.959434
2025-04-13 0.296233 0.380615 0.479081 0.601485 0.748507 0.918329 1.128150
2025-04-20 0.227992 0.321836 0.439485 0.595510 0.794453 1.036945 1.351863
2025-04-27 0.172248 0.268188 0.397612 0.580653 0.827929 1.145042 1.576286
2025-05-04 0.133695 0.229950 0.369641 0.579894 0.879849 1.282973 1.854512
2025-05-11 0.102889 0.196340 0.342484 0.576495 0.928472 1.423023 2.151960
2025-05-18 0.073430 0.157546 0.300397 0.544817 0.933320 1.504583 2.380092
2025-05-25 0.050617 0.123531 0.258800 0.506750 0.923506 1.564525 2.584956
2025-06-01 0.037254 0.103123 0.236051 0.495710 0.954645 1.689124 2.897485
2025-06-08 0.026992 0.085465 0.214246 0.482445 0.980499 1.808708 3.214628
2025-06-15 0.021304 0.076296 0.207225 0.495460 1.053623 2.011880 3.680994
2025-06-22 0.014572 0.061124 0.183254 0.470784 1.055855 2.098272 3.968443
2025-06-29 0.010197 0.050531 0.167332 0.461122 1.088117 2.245098 4.378827
2025-07-06 0.006846 0.040888 0.150536 0.446028 1.108005 2.373154 4.770777
2025-07-13 0.005014 0.035541 0.143531 0.452220 1.172373 2.588995 5.333773
2025-07-20 0.003474 0.029944 0.133698 0.449456 1.217853 2.774796 5.860028
2025-07-27 0.002507 0.026141 0.128104 0.456560 1.286431 3.012168 6.499287
2025-08-03 0.001756 0.022558 0.121753 0.460291 1.348250 3.242577 7.143927
2025-08-10 0.001035 0.017679 0.107986 0.439257 1.348871 3.350157 7.566586
2025-08-17 0.000552 0.013322 0.093484 0.411593 1.328644 3.412450 7.907294
2025-08-24 0.000332 0.010964 0.086437 0.405765 1.362770 3.593205 8.493247
2025-08-31 0.000187 0.008886 0.079262 0.397382 1.388944 3.759170 9.061566
2025-09-07 0.000127 0.008015 0.078232 0.410953 1.476958 4.070242 9.944455